Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.083406 4.458823 4.875392 5.376421 5.968916 6.655419 7.523501
2025-01-05 3.510970 3.981784 4.539898 5.264452 6.202911 7.412853 9.157273
2025-01-12 3.149170 3.657288 4.285709 5.144590 6.331565 7.991931 10.662639
2025-01-19 2.856775 3.371096 4.025870 4.953831 6.298847 8.302814 11.833629
2025-01-26 2.730624 3.276994 3.994444 5.052644 6.672120 9.274564 14.432396
2025-02-02 2.663582 3.249547 4.042933 5.261737 7.237693 10.694209 18.613140
2025-02-09 2.580453 3.190402 4.037308 5.383797 7.679944 12.025843 23.585664
2025-02-16 2.456429 3.063809 3.921352 5.316868 7.782143 12.725370 27.554736
2025-02-23 2.353309 2.958946 3.827360 5.271882 7.912130 13.522042 32.725984
2025-03-02 2.258816 2.860017 3.733769 5.215620 8.008833 14.276209 38.867914
2025-03-09 2.174277 2.770311 3.647184 5.161010 8.098017 15.046574 46.615827
2025-03-16 2.109195 2.705285 3.593696 5.157123 8.288259 16.159401 59.360189
2025-03-23 2.065720 2.671231 3.588298 5.241516 8.690885 18.104593 88.179477
2025-03-30 1.986198 2.578931 3.483949 5.135663 8.656390 18.705509 110.003469
2025-04-06 1.911019 2.489842 3.379667 5.020703 8.583586 19.164912 137.014176
2025-04-13 1.827725 2.385078 3.244591 4.837414 8.325487 18.882804 149.970475
2025-04-20 1.803285 2.369627 3.255248 4.932387 8.751659 21.393887 328.717763
2025-04-27 1.798992 2.384822 3.317261 5.133191 9.490131 25.894687 6857.927959
2025-05-04 1.779769 2.375380 3.336520 5.250314 10.042507 30.280353 NaN
2025-05-11 1.732186 2.318754 3.271059 5.186101 10.075671 31.903215 NaN
2025-05-18 1.690707 2.270403 3.217665 5.142929 10.164097 34.039425 NaN
2025-05-25 1.649889 2.221679 3.161303 5.088921 10.211976 36.039854 NaN
2025-06-01 1.611494 2.175604 3.107561 5.036483 10.257124 38.171023 NaN